instead of raw leather, shoes; instead of lumber, complicated office furniture; instead of raw iron, machinery, bicycles, typewriters or scientific instruments. This, in a few words, is the change in the export trade in this country, and this undoubtedly is the growing tendency of the future.

And since the manufactured products have largely substituted the raw material in this trade, it is quite natural that the currents of the exports from the United States should not have radically changed. From the very beginning of the foreign commerce of the United States, from twothirds to three-fourths of the exports went to Europe and over two-thirds still continue to cross the Atlantic. Nevertheless, under the influence of the changed character of the exports, some changes in the current of trade were inevitable. On the one hand, the substitution of manufactured products for food and raw materials inevitably caused some difficulties in the European markets where the products of American factories were forced to meet the competition of the products of domestic factories; and, on the other hand, it opened markets in such countries as were of no importance as consumers of American exports heretofore, either because they had a surplus of food products of their own or because they had no demand for the particular foods or raw materials which the United States could offer. As a result, we find an increased pro

portion of the American exports diverted from Europe to the South American and Asiatic countries. Thus in the five years (1866 to 1870) Europe absorbed 77.8 per cent.; North America, 13.5 per cent.; South America, 4.2 per cent.; Asia, 2.7 per cent.; Australasia, 1.4 per cent. and Africa but .5 per cent. of the American exports. In the last five years, however, North America's share has increased to 18.5 per cent.; South America's, to 4.5 per cent.; Asia's, to 4.9 per cent.; that of Australasia, to 2.4 per cent.; and Africa's, to 1 per cent.; correspondingly, then, Europe's share has declined to 68 per cent. If figures did not make such dull reading, it would be possible and instructive to show that the share of the extra European countries is very much larger when only manufactures are considered. This analysis does not mean, of course, that our trade with Europe has actually declined, but only that, as manufactures are substituted for raw materials in the export trade, the markets of the younger countries less advanced industrially have become proportionately more important, and it is upon them that international rivalry is concentrated.

extra

It was shown above that the imports into the United States had not grown as rapidly as the exports. Nevertheless they have increased faster than population and now do so more uninterruptedly, notwithstand

ing all the important changes in tariff policy. The sudden decreases in the early 70's (from $642,000,000 in 1872 to $461,000,000 in 1876), again in the 90's (from $866,000,000 in 1893 to $654,000,000 in 1894), and finally from $1,434,000,000 in 1907 to $1,194,000,000 in 1908, were due to periods of economic depression rather than to changes in the tariff. Within the most recent years imports have increased in face of the considerable drop in the exports, so that the balance of trade has declined from $666,000,000 in 1908 to $188,000,000 in 1910.

These few data will indicate the growing importance of the import trade, which is frequently disregarded by writers on questions of foreign commerce. It is true that, with the rapid growth of American industries, the United States is becoming very much more self-sufficient than it was, inasmuch as our industries are better able to satisfy the demands of the internal markets. The most telling demonstration of this is found in the fact that, while early in the Nineteenth century more than one-half and sometimes nearly three-fifths of the imports consisted of manufactured goods ready for consumption, by the beginning of the new era (that is after the Civil War) the proportion has declined to 40 per cent. and now constitutes less than one-fourth, while the imports of raw materials for the use of manufactures has increased from 10 per cent. in the 60's to over

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one-third. Adding to these the imports of partly manufactured articles for further use in manufactures, over one-half of the imports into the United States is called for by the demands of American industries. Contrary to some alarmist statements, the importation of food products has not increased, relatively speaking, and the time is still far distant when the United States will become dependent upon a foreign food supply excepting for such articles as, say, sugar or coffee, for whose importation a good climatic reason exists. In this connection we may point to the most interesting analysis to be found in the report of the chief of the Bureau of Statistics of the Department of Agriculture for 1910, which shows that, owing to improved methods of agriculture, the production of foodstuffs on the American farm is actually growing faster at present than the population.

For this reason the sources of the import trade of the United States are more evenly divided among the continents than are those of the exports. Less than one-half comes from Europe (the proportion within the last 25 years having gradually declined); about one-fifth comes from the other North American countries; about 15 per cent. from Asia; and 10 to 12 per cent. from South America (the respective shares of the last two regions having materially increased within recent years). Of articles for im

mediate consumption, sugar and coffee, and of the raw materials, hides, skins, and India rubber are perhaps the only articles of import which individually constitute large shares of the total trade. In 1910 these four items aggregated one-fourth the total imports, while the remaining threefourths were divided among a vast variety of articles.

In short, if it were necessary to summarize the characteristic changes in the foreign trade of the United States in one sentence, it might be said that the change consisted mainly in the gradual substitution of ready manufactures for raw materials and food products in the export trade and a similar gradual substitution of raw materials for ready-to-use manufactured articles in the import trade — a significant index of the industrial revolution through which the United States has passed during the last fifty years.

It has often been stated that, as a result of this industrial revolution, the United States has become more self-sufficient economically and less dependent upon foreign countries. This rapid review of the foreign commerce shows that the statement is true in only a very limited sense. On the one hand, the dependence upon foreign sources of raw materials, if less urgent than the dependence upon the foreign food supply, is much more important than that upon a foreign supply on manufactured articles for it

affects home production as well as consumption; and on the other, the dependence of American industry on the export trade has considerably increased. In consequence, the question of governmental aid to export trade has become a very serious one during the last two decades, and to a certain extent the necessity for the increase of the export trade is affecting our traditional tariff policy. The study of the foreign markets and of the conditions of foreign demands has become a matter of great concern. The increased attention to the consular service, the organization of a special Bureau of Manufactures, the distribution of many special commercial agents throughout the world, the organization of a Railroad board of trade through the efforts of the Federal Department of Commerce and Labor, are a few of the efforts made by the National government to open a larger outlet to American industries into some of the markets heretofore held almost exclusively by the British and Germans. The rapid organization of export museums and export associations through private efforts, a greater attention to the study of foreign commercial conditions and of foreign languages, and of the conditions of foreign trade in general in our best universities, are further evidences of the growing needs for the development of our export trade.

The influence of this comparatively new factor in American manufactures

such vast proportions as to outrank by far the volume of foreign trade), there has never been available anything like a comprehensive statistical compilation to show the extent of this trade between the leading producing sections of the country at different stages of our economic development. Even at the present time, the nature and volume of interstate trade can only be approximately inferred, especially as regards railroad traffic, from a study of general statistics relating to volume of production and tonnage carried.