History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
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Page 8
... trend acceler- ated in the years after World War II , as engineers , systems analysists , econo- mists ... Trend extrapolation is perhaps the most well - known of these techniques . This method traces the movement of a specific trend ...
... trend acceler- ated in the years after World War II , as engineers , systems analysists , econo- mists ... Trend extrapolation is perhaps the most well - known of these techniques . This method traces the movement of a specific trend ...
Page 10
... trend line from past behavior is not an effective way of thinking for- ward . Indeed , this future path might break away from the trend line . Like his- torians , scenarists understand that variables interact in many complex ways ...
... trend line from past behavior is not an effective way of thinking for- ward . Indeed , this future path might break away from the trend line . Like his- torians , scenarists understand that variables interact in many complex ways ...
Page 14
... trend line that will occur in the future , nor should we try . We can , however , imagine a number of alternative structures in which such events could occur . Historians , generally speaking , write about events , and as a result are ...
... trend line that will occur in the future , nor should we try . We can , however , imagine a number of alternative structures in which such events could occur . Historians , generally speaking , write about events , and as a result are ...
Page 15
... trend line , that defines historical writing . Because they write about events , historians tend to view the future as im- possible to write about . Since events are unpredictable , so this reasoning goes , the future cannot be ...
... trend line , that defines historical writing . Because they write about events , historians tend to view the future as im- possible to write about . Since events are unpredictable , so this reasoning goes , the future cannot be ...
Page 29
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Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York