History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
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... produced from my article " A History of the Future , " which appeared in His- tory and Theory Theme Issue 41 ( December 2002 ) , 72-89 , and I thank both Brian and Blackwell for permission to reprint these here . I must especially thank ...
... produced from my article " A History of the Future , " which appeared in His- tory and Theory Theme Issue 41 ( December 2002 ) , 72-89 , and I thank both Brian and Blackwell for permission to reprint these here . I must especially thank ...
Page 2
... produce narratives or stories . Both a history and a future scenario are specific ways of using language that share many common properties . This argument represents an important break with past efforts to think about the relationship ...
... produce narratives or stories . Both a history and a future scenario are specific ways of using language that share many common properties . This argument represents an important break with past efforts to think about the relationship ...
Page 4
... produce generalizations and law - like statements about the past . After studying many types of revolution , for example , a historian should be able to derive general laws or principles about the phenomenon of " revolution . " Carl ...
... produce generalizations and law - like statements about the past . After studying many types of revolution , for example , a historian should be able to derive general laws or principles about the phenomenon of " revolution . " Carl ...
Page 5
... produce a different outcome . An historian could study all the varieties of revolution and conclude only that each had its own unique characteristics , each had its own specific causal connections that might not be repeated exactly ...
... produce a different outcome . An historian could study all the varieties of revolution and conclude only that each had its own unique characteristics , each had its own specific causal connections that might not be repeated exactly ...
Page 9
... produce wildly different results with only a slight alteration of one of the variables . By now , most laypeople are familiar with the so - called butterfly principle : that a butterfly flapping its wings over China can disturb the air ...
... produce wildly different results with only a slight alteration of one of the variables . By now , most laypeople are familiar with the so - called butterfly principle : that a butterfly flapping its wings over China can disturb the air ...
Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York