History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
Results 1-5 of 35
Page 5
... then , is to determine how closely history2 can be made to re- semble historyl . Is it even possible for historyZ to resemble history! ? Some postmodern critics maintain that history? is nothing more than a Introduction 5.
... then , is to determine how closely history2 can be made to re- semble historyl . Is it even possible for historyZ to resemble history! ? Some postmodern critics maintain that history? is nothing more than a Introduction 5.
Page 9
... possible , and have in- stead sought out new ways of thinking forward . One of these methods — the method that most interested me here and the one to which I will be referring most often in this book — is the scenario method . This type ...
... possible , and have in- stead sought out new ways of thinking forward . One of these methods — the method that most interested me here and the one to which I will be referring most often in this book — is the scenario method . This type ...
Page 10
... possible " states " to which the future might be attracted . Further , and significantly for the argument in this book , I believe the scenario method is closest in form to historyZ . Much of the analysis in this book will involve a ...
... possible " states " to which the future might be attracted . Further , and significantly for the argument in this book , I believe the scenario method is closest in form to historyZ . Much of the analysis in this book will involve a ...
Page 12
... possible . Scenarists thus say that the purpose of a scenario is not to determine the most accurate de- scription of the future — an impossible task — but rather to create useful men- tal maps . A written narrative in history is very ...
... possible . Scenarists thus say that the purpose of a scenario is not to determine the most accurate de- scription of the future — an impossible task — but rather to create useful men- tal maps . A written narrative in history is very ...
Page 13
... possible world ; scenarios often are writ- ten in the subjunctive or future conditional tense ( or in the present tense , as I will detail below ) . A scenario is flexible because its designers and users as- sume there are credible ...
... possible world ; scenarios often are writ- ten in the subjunctive or future conditional tense ( or in the present tense , as I will detail below ) . A scenario is flexible because its designers and users as- sume there are credible ...
Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York