History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
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Page 4
... example , a historian should be able to derive general laws or principles about the phenomenon of " revolution . " Carl Hempel , especially , maintained that historical research should be able to determine a specific set of conditions ...
... example , a historian should be able to derive general laws or principles about the phenomenon of " revolution . " Carl Hempel , especially , maintained that historical research should be able to determine a specific set of conditions ...
Page 7
... examples are at some distance from the modern futurist . Many practitioners of futuring tend to come from scientific disciplines , from engineering , or , more recently , from the social sciences . The modern interest in futurism has ...
... examples are at some distance from the modern futurist . Many practitioners of futuring tend to come from scientific disciplines , from engineering , or , more recently , from the social sciences . The modern interest in futurism has ...
Page 8
... example of this technique . Gordon Moore , the founder of Intel , noted that the amount of information capable of being stored on computer chips appeared to double every eighteen to twenty - four months . Moore's " law , " then was to ...
... example of this technique . Gordon Moore , the founder of Intel , noted that the amount of information capable of being stored on computer chips appeared to double every eighteen to twenty - four months . Moore's " law , " then was to ...
Page 11
... example was clearly not accurate , and yet " by tak- ing some action , the soldiers started to obtain new feedback about their en- vironment , and they entered a new ' learning loop ' which gradually built up their own understanding and ...
... example was clearly not accurate , and yet " by tak- ing some action , the soldiers started to obtain new feedback about their en- vironment , and they entered a new ' learning loop ' which gradually built up their own understanding and ...
Page 12
... example , business planners require some tool to guide their de- cisions about the future , and having a mental map affords them the ability to act in the face of uncertainty . Clearly , a scenarist wants to be able to " get it right ...
... example , business planners require some tool to guide their de- cisions about the future , and having a mental map affords them the ability to act in the face of uncertainty . Clearly , a scenarist wants to be able to " get it right ...
Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York