History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
Results 1-5 of 36
Page 4
... determine a specific set of conditions , a specific sequence of events that produce the same predictable conclusions . As Hempel maintained , such re- search would demonstrate that causation in the past is not a matter of chance but ...
... determine a specific set of conditions , a specific sequence of events that produce the same predictable conclusions . As Hempel maintained , such re- search would demonstrate that causation in the past is not a matter of chance but ...
Page 5
... , then , is to determine how closely history2 can be made to re- semble historyl . Is it even possible for historyZ to resemble history! ? Some postmodern critics maintain that history? is nothing more than a Introduction 5.
... , then , is to determine how closely history2 can be made to re- semble historyl . Is it even possible for historyZ to resemble history! ? Some postmodern critics maintain that history? is nothing more than a Introduction 5.
Page 10
... determine the shape of the future . From this information , the scenarist inductively infers possible patterns and ... determines the most probable fu- ture paths , noting again that he or she will 10 ། Introduction.
... determine the shape of the future . From this information , the scenarist inductively infers possible patterns and ... determines the most probable fu- ture paths , noting again that he or she will 10 ། Introduction.
Page 11
... determine several such probable paths , not just one . Each one of these scenarios is written in the form of a narrative that describes a particular environment , rather than providing a linear account of events . A scenario , as ...
... determine several such probable paths , not just one . Each one of these scenarios is written in the form of a narrative that describes a particular environment , rather than providing a linear account of events . A scenario , as ...
Page 12
... determine the most accurate de- scription of the future — an impossible task — but rather to create useful men- tal maps . A written narrative in history is very similar to a scenario , in that it is a type of mental map of the past . A ...
... determine the most accurate de- scription of the future — an impossible task — but rather to create useful men- tal maps . A written narrative in history is very similar to a scenario , in that it is a type of mental map of the past . A ...
Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York