History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
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Page 5
... context - depended events . The events historians study are usually quite complex and sensitive to a myriad of variables . If one variable were altered , some other outcome may have resulted . Further , conditions in one location in ...
... context - depended events . The events historians study are usually quite complex and sensitive to a myriad of variables . If one variable were altered , some other outcome may have resulted . Further , conditions in one location in ...
Page 12
... not a prediction . This is not merely a semantic sleight - of - hand ; although both are statements about the future , predictions and scenarios are embedded within two very different rhetorical contexts 12 Introduction.
... not a prediction . This is not merely a semantic sleight - of - hand ; although both are statements about the future , predictions and scenarios are embedded within two very different rhetorical contexts 12 Introduction.
Page 13
... contexts . Both the designer and user of a prediction assume that a prediction is a cer- tainty ; predictions often contain the word " will , " as in " artificial intelligence will displace human intelligence . " A prediction is ...
... contexts . Both the designer and user of a prediction assume that a prediction is a cer- tainty ; predictions often contain the word " will , " as in " artificial intelligence will displace human intelligence . " A prediction is ...
Page 14
... context of other pieces of evidence . Once inferences are drawn , the historian may then make statements about the past . Similarly , a futurist cannot be said to study the future , and must instead examine evi- dence found in the ...
... context of other pieces of evidence . Once inferences are drawn , the historian may then make statements about the past . Similarly , a futurist cannot be said to study the future , and must instead examine evi- dence found in the ...
Page 17
... context dependant , governed by interconnections of variables , are sensitive to local conditions , and are difficult to predict with certainty . The future cannot be predicted . This should not prevent us , however , from cre- ating ...
... context dependant , governed by interconnections of variables , are sensitive to local conditions , and are difficult to predict with certainty . The future cannot be predicted . This should not prevent us , however , from cre- ating ...
Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York