History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
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Page 8
... scientists have called into question our ability to predict even physical systems and other systems governed by rule - based behavior . Quan- tum physicists at the beginning of the century called into 8 ~ Introduction.
... scientists have called into question our ability to predict even physical systems and other systems governed by rule - based behavior . Quan- tum physicists at the beginning of the century called into 8 ~ Introduction.
Page 10
... behavior is not an effective way of thinking for- ward . Indeed , this future path might break away from the trend line . Like his- torians , scenarists understand that variables interact in many complex ways , therefore future1 could ...
... behavior is not an effective way of thinking for- ward . Indeed , this future path might break away from the trend line . Like his- torians , scenarists understand that variables interact in many complex ways , therefore future1 could ...
Page 11
... us . 16 This mental picture might be accurate or it might be inaccurate , some portions of it might be detailed , other parts cloudy and vague . Whatever its status , human behavior is governed by our mental Introduction ~ 11.
... us . 16 This mental picture might be accurate or it might be inaccurate , some portions of it might be detailed , other parts cloudy and vague . Whatever its status , human behavior is governed by our mental Introduction ~ 11.
Page 12
... behavior is governed by our mental maps ; we make decisions and choices based upon the information we receive and the ways in which that information situates itself in our mental maps , helping to provide a guide to behavior . As we ...
... behavior is governed by our mental maps ; we make decisions and choices based upon the information we receive and the ways in which that information situates itself in our mental maps , helping to provide a guide to behavior . As we ...
Page 32
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Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York