History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
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Page 5
... altered , some other outcome may have resulted . Further , conditions in one location in time and space are usually different from conditions in another location . Thus , even the same set of variables in both cases might produce a ...
... altered , some other outcome may have resulted . Further , conditions in one location in time and space are usually different from conditions in another location . Thus , even the same set of variables in both cases might produce a ...
Page 12
... alters the metal map , the historio- graphic boundaries of a debate . When historians challenged Turner's thesis , they were challenging the mental map of the past that the frontier thesis offered . To reiterate , a scenario is not a ...
... alters the metal map , the historio- graphic boundaries of a debate . When historians challenged Turner's thesis , they were challenging the mental map of the past that the frontier thesis offered . To reiterate , a scenario is not a ...
Page 13
... alter- native is to concede that the prediction can and should be altered , thus weakening its power . Armed with predictions , the decision maker acts with confidence , but with little flexibility should events not go as predicted . A ...
... alter- native is to concede that the prediction can and should be altered , thus weakening its power . Armed with predictions , the decision maker acts with confidence , but with little flexibility should events not go as predicted . A ...
Page 22
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Page 26
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Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York