History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
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Page 1
... actions and decisions of Great Men , historians today are just as likely to inquire into a much wider domain of the past , from the lives of families and peasants , to more abstract realms such as the history of mentalities and emotions ...
... actions and decisions of Great Men , historians today are just as likely to inquire into a much wider domain of the past , from the lives of families and peasants , to more abstract realms such as the history of mentalities and emotions ...
Page 11
... actions , decisions , and events might occur . To borrow an analogy from history , scenarists write synchronic ... action in the pres- ent . The map in the above example was clearly not accurate , and yet " by tak- ing some action , the ...
... actions , decisions , and events might occur . To borrow an analogy from history , scenarists write synchronic ... action in the pres- ent . The map in the above example was clearly not accurate , and yet " by tak- ing some action , the ...
Page 12
... action . Like the soldiers in the above example , business planners require some tool to guide their de- cisions about the future , and having a mental map affords them the ability to act in the face of uncertainty . Clearly , a ...
... action . Like the soldiers in the above example , business planners require some tool to guide their de- cisions about the future , and having a mental map affords them the ability to act in the face of uncertainty . Clearly , a ...
Page 14
... the trend lines , divergent actions that are unpredictable precisely be- cause they are new and unique . Since events are new occurrences , we can- not predict the procession of future events by appeals to 14 2 Introduction.
... the trend lines , divergent actions that are unpredictable precisely be- cause they are new and unique . Since events are new occurrences , we can- not predict the procession of future events by appeals to 14 2 Introduction.
Page 27
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Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York