History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the FutureThe book reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future. At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view the future as a scientist might--aiming for predictions and certainties--but rather should view the future in the same way that an historian views the past. |
From inside the book
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Page 4
... able to derive general laws or principles about the phenomenon of " revolution . " Carl Hempel , especially , maintained that historical research should be able to determine a specific set of conditions , a specific sequence of events ...
... able to derive general laws or principles about the phenomenon of " revolution . " Carl Hempel , especially , maintained that historical research should be able to determine a specific set of conditions , a specific sequence of events ...
Page 8
... able to program the model with a sufficient number of variables . The Club of Rome predictions of the 1960s and their resulting Limits to Growth forecasts are famous cases of computer simulations . Today's computer simula- tions , via ...
... able to program the model with a sufficient number of variables . The Club of Rome predictions of the 1960s and their resulting Limits to Growth forecasts are famous cases of computer simulations . Today's computer simula- tions , via ...
Page 12
... able to " get it right " and devise a scenario that actually comes true . But , understanding that any such future, is probably not going to correspond exactly to futurel , the scenarist instead seeks the next best thing : a narrative ...
... able to " get it right " and devise a scenario that actually comes true . But , understanding that any such future, is probably not going to correspond exactly to futurel , the scenarist instead seeks the next best thing : a narrative ...
Page 13
... able to be controlled or influenced for human purposes dates to the Scientific Revolution , and was later leavened by the industrial revo- lution and the rise of commercial capitalism . Unlike the earlier Christian Middle Ages , in the ...
... able to be controlled or influenced for human purposes dates to the Scientific Revolution , and was later leavened by the industrial revo- lution and the rise of commercial capitalism . Unlike the earlier Christian Middle Ages , in the ...
Page 26
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Other editions - View all
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2010 |
History and Future: Using Historical Thinking to Imagine the Future David J. Staley Limited preview - 2006 |
Common terms and phrases
actual alter ampliative inferences Ankersmit argued behavior Bertrand de Jouvenel business space chapter Collingwood complex conceptual consider context counterfactual counterfactual history create creative Daniel Yergin describe discipline draw inferences driving forces economic effects Elliott Waves example explore future1 futurists goal happen historians historical field historical imagination historical method historical representation historical statements historical thinking history2 human idea Irreality Lane and Maxfield language linear logic meaning mental map mind narios narrative Nicholas Rescher object ontological Ontological Uncertainty past patterns Peter Schwartz philosophers of history pieces of evidence plausible possible predict the future present questions R. G. Collingwood reality relationship represent Rescher scenario method scenario space scenario thinking scenario writers scenarist scientific sense shape situation social societies specific stories structure subjunctive surprise tion torians trend line truth ture understand University Press Virtual History write York