Four Conspicuous Politicians Messrs. Marshall, Hughes, Fairbanks, and Daniels Indicated by Gluyas Williams میر The War and Foreign Trade By H. V. CANN MPLANTED in nearly every man is the labor of his fellow-men. To gratify this longing, mankind from the earliest times has been ready to barter, to steal, or even to slay. Countless generations have followed alternately one or more of these methods. The first communities of human beings satisfied their acquisitive instincts by barter among themselves, and a common effort against the lives and property of other communities. But it became plain even to those early raiders that a continuing supply of the things they wanted could be had only by an exchange of services and not by violence. This conviction, growing through the ages, seemed gradually to be leading humanity away from theft and slaughter until the reversion in A.D. 1914 to primitive methods. Coveting the products of distant lands, men long ago braved the wilderness and the desert and sailed the uncharted seas. Things not greatly valued where they were made or grown, but highly prized elsewhere, were carried to far-off buyers, first on beasts of burden, then in argosies; and now modern trade crowds every means of transportation-steamships, railroads, and even submarines and air-craft. Barter nowadays is on an enormous scale, but no more than ever does the constantly increasing volume satisfy the appetites, appease the curiosity, or lessen the vanity and selfishness of the human family. People in all lands display a common weakness for imported goods. Many values depend not upon the service involved but upon capricious fashion. When this country was young the John Company captains and Hudson Bay factors sailed out of London to India and Canada with cargoes of glass beads, colored cloths, and muskets to barter in the East for silks, spices, and pearls, and in the West for furs. Indian women liked beads and gaudy blankets; English women wanted silks and sables. On either side. there were no troublesome questions of supply. The manufacture and transportation of goods placed the greater portion of work upon the traders, but they laughed at the simplicity and ignorance of the Indians in that exchange of services. Ideas of values are even stranger today. The labor of thousands of people represented by several shiploads of goods may be sent abroad in exchange for an old painting or piece of tapestry. After great toil, coal and flour are produced, and it is not so unusual to see enough to warm and feed a household many days bartered for a quart of wine from a certain vineyard in France or a pound or two of tobacco leaves from a certain valley in Cuba. Turning, however, from unprofitable abstractions to a matter-of-fact view of American exports, we see an almost involuntary development of business which has placed the United States, for the time being at least, in the leadership of the world's trade. In a short twelvemonth America moved from third to first place, with a volume of exports far greater than Britain's advantages ever secured or Germany's intense and scientific efforts ever achieved. From the first quarter of the nineteenth century American exports began to grow at the rate of about fifty per cent. every ten years. The movement was stimulated by the revival of business after the Civil War, but quieted down during the ten years preceding 1896. After the decision on the question of the gold standard, the great industrial and commercial expansion which followed and the new markets which opened in colonial possessions and protectorates caused a rapid growth in the foreign trade. The percentage of manufactured goods sent abroad became larger every year. A normal growth continued until the autumn of 1914. The country was then recovering from the first shock and the short but extreme depression caused by the great war. Neutral markets, cut off from their accustomed supplies, began to buy here. Enormous demands for goods and materials came from the warring nations. An entire change came in the character of the exports. Many of the things sent abroad in normal times were no longer wanted. But food, clothing, horses, motor-cars, metals, guns, and explosives could not be shipped fast enough. In the thirty-six months before the war exports amounted to $7,034,000,000. These figures were exceeded in the two fiscal years following the outbreak of the war; the movement for that period totaled $7,102,000,000, of which last year's proportion was the world's-record-breaking sum of $4,333,000,000, an amount nearly equal to the combined figures of the five years from 1891 to 1895 inclusive. No less than seventy-five per cent. of the whole was sent to the Allies. Blockades cut off the German market. England controlled most of the ocean freighters and removed them from usual trade routes for purposes of the war. Such heavy increases occurred in freight rates that shipments of certain classes of goods were virtually prohibited. These conditions, and in addition the congestion of freight at terminals, inadequate loading facilities, scarcity of labor and materials, and the strained credit situation in South America and elsewhere, undoubtedly kept the volume. of exports from reaching even more extraordinary totals. given much gratuitous advice. All this has resulted in a mutual increase in trade. Thus far Latin America has the lion's share of the increase. Considering the heavy indebtedness of some of the governments and importers in South America, their position must have been embarrassing when European support was no longer available. The loans and goods and markets furnished by the United States have been a great help to South America during a trying time. The Russian, Italian, and Peninsular markets are engaging a great deal of attention at the present time. Very great developments of benefit to America are. expected, particularly in Russia. At the time of the last change in the Government of Canada there was a lot of political claptrap against trade with the United States. Although the party responsible for that sentiment came into power, the trade has grown faster than ever. 'Canada still holds its place as the second largest customer of the United States, and is one of the safest, most convenient, and most promising markets for American goods. With a population of fewer than eight million inhabitants, that country buys more goods here than the combined millions of people in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, all the other South and Central American countries, Mexico, and Cuba. Having sold to other countries since. July 1, 1914, goods worth over seven billion dollars, the United States used something over half this enormous credit to settle for things imported. With the balance it made at various times foreign loans aggregating fifteen hundred millions, and bought back American securities for a similar amount. It was also able to keep most of its own production of gold and to collect from abroad about six hundred millions as well. Many forecasts have been made of the conditions that will confront American domestic and foreign trade when peace is declared in Europe. Some of these predictions are rather alarm(Continued on page 54 following) In recent years Norte Americanos have followed the lead of the British and Germans in assiduous cultivation of LatinAmerican markets. Pan-Americanism has been carefully fostered by historic conferences, associations, a flood of books and pamphlets, and much speechmaking. Distinguished statesmen and many prominent business men have made the long journey. through those interesting countries. porters and manufacturers have been Ex THE DE VINNE PRESS, NEW YORK That old Eagerness to Get on the Job To operate at high speed day after day, and enjoy it, the body requires a full quota of its essential foods-albumen (the builder) and phosphorus (the vitalizer). Ordinarily the body gets this from the regular diet. 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