Feb. 15, 1920.

A writer in one of the London technical journals, dealing with the subject of the "trend of world industry," remarks that just as the war has led to the wholesale transfer of wealth from Europe to the New World, it seems also very probable that it has shifted the industrial centre of gravity of the earth.

In fact the question at the back of some men's minds is whether or not the decline of the European Continent as the leading centre of activity of the white race has definitely set in. If this be so, manufacturing will, as time goes on, be carried on more and more in the countries which possess the raw materials, the fuel, and the labor in their own territories. A movement of population towards these countries would be the inevitable result. It is possible that this decline is part of a world movement which cannot be indefinitely withstood. Should this be the case there is every reason why all possible efforts should be made to retard it and keep it within proportions which will prevent any catastrophic occurrences. Assuming that the tendency is really at work the problem to be solved is how to keep the process under control. One of the first things that would appear to be necessary is the

stimulation of food production in Europe to its maximum possible extent. This would have the effect of reducing imports from the New World and would do much to restore the normal rates of exchange between European States and those of the American continents. One of the first necessities of the case is, therefore, the restoration of settled conditions in Russia, so that the vast wheat-growing areas of that country may again be brought under cultivation. It is doubtful whether much will be gained by attempting to increase the wheat production of countries in which climatic and other conditions are unfavorable. But if wheat were available in Eastern Europe in exchange for manufactured goods, the American exchanges would be greatly improved and there would be a large market for the European manufacturing countries in which they would compete successfully against New World countries, owing to advantages geographical position.

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It is true that Germany might be the principal gainer by the revival of Russia. Even so, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy could expect a considerable share of this exchange of commodities with Russia. German competition in other markets might be lessened if the country were

finding a large customer in Russia. If Europe, with the Middle East and Northern Africa, could make itself approximately self-supporting in foodstuffs, much would have been done to remedy the present state of affairs. It would still have to sell sufficient manufactured goods in other markets to pay for the essential raw materials required by its maufacturing industries and tropical foodstuffs and luxuries. It must be remembered in this connection that the European States control vast reservations of raw material in Africa, Asia, and the Pacific Islands in which they can for a long time to come secure to themselves a market for sufficient manufactured goods to pay for the raw materials produced.

The writer of these suggestions agrees with all thoughtful people that the key to the whole problem is Russia.. Upon the speedy restoration of order in that great country it is possible that the whole future of Europe hangs. Europe is like an engine without a fuel supply, or with one too distant to be utilized with profit. The steam in its boiler is rapidly becoming exhausted, and the wheels of its industry seem likely to come to a standstill unless a near and cheap supply of food can be secured.

It is impossible for British and American manufacturers to shut their eyes to the fact that they have a severe competitor in Japan, especially of course in the inferior grades of goods, at present. But the Japanese operative is very teachable and amenable to training, and what he does poorly today, he will probably do very much better tomorrow. Australia is feeling

the effect of this competition very keenly. In 1918 no less than £5 million worth of Japanese manufactures were imported into the Commonwealth, and fifty per cent of these came under the heading of textiles. Wearing apparel, hosiery, pajamas, buttons, silk and table linen provided Japan with great opportunities which she was ready to seize. As we all know there has been a lot of dissatisfaction with the Japanese product, and importers have been left with a lot of very second rate stuff on their hands. Jugglery and "slimness" are really not the soul of business, as distinct from probity and enterprise. The Chamber of Manufactures, which represents all the factories of Australia, has taken direct action against the Japanese invasion. The Federal tariff is about to be revised and the

Sydney "Sun" has published articles descriptive of the industrial conditions of the Island Empire and showing the necessity of prohibiting the import of cheap articles made by cheap Asiatic labor. The following is an extract from one of the "Sun" articles, and it refers to the labor organization of Nagoya and other Japanese cities.

The system strikes you like a blow. The working time of the great textile mills is all round the clock. Labor is indented from the country, to remain in the factories for three years, or for as long as it will stay and stay alive. It sleeps in dormitories on the premises, and is fed by the factory, the food being additional to wages. The shifts (when they are not made longer) are two per day, from 6 A. M. to 6 P. M., and from 6 P. M. to 6 A. M. The week is of seven days,

though there are certain holiday times. While one shift works the other sleeps; and the same dormitory, the same bedding, does double duty. When one shift goes out of sleeping quarters, the other comes in. And the operatives thus brought from their country homes to labor in compounds for 12 hours, day or night, through three years of indenture, are girls from 15 to 20 years and even younger.

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Judging from what we know of Australian trade union feeling on this subject the tariff wall will be built very high against Asia, and then let other countries, with low tariff walls, look out for trouble. Huge quantities of new capital have been poured into Japan to found new industries and to extend old ones since the war began, and the factories which have sulted must be kept going somehow. The real fact of the matter is that Japan, outwardly prosperous and undoubtedly doing well, is really rotten at the core. The labor system just described is rank slavery of the worst type and the system is eating into the vitals of the nation. Japan is very perilously near a burning volcano and she must mind that she does not fall in.

The enormous expansion of Japanese imports into India is the most remarkable and significant feature of trade in the latter country. The number of Japanese commercial travellers in India has risen from 32 in 1911 to considerably over 2000 today. Japanese retail stores are now noticeable in every fair-sized town in India, and individual Japanese are to be found in the most remote parts of the country. Japanese merchant

houses are taking up a prominent position as general distributors of imports from all over the world, and as shippers of Indian produce. It is a remarkable feature of Japanese organizations, the way in which all their branches of activity abroad pull together as one unit for the furtherance of the national cause and, by means of preferential treatment to their own people, contrive to place business in the hands of each other and keep out competing interests.

The competition of Japanese merchants, both in the export and import trade, with corresponding British houses is likely to be most severe in future. The scale of their working expenses is low, for assistants and clerks are readily obtained from Japan at very meagre salaries, often little more than half of those paid by European houses. They are great workers, and do not object to being stationed in remote districts and to living under conditions which would not be tolerated by the British assistant, for pay on which he could not exist. The Japanese seem to understand the subtleties of the Indian mind in a way which the European merchant never attempts to do, and probably could not do if he tried.

It should also be pointed out that since 1914 the public debt of the United Kingdom has increased by £157 10s. per head of the population; that of the United States by £55 10s., Italy £73, France £114, Belgium £74 16s., Germany £128 13s., and Austria £89-whereas that of Japan has increased by only 3s., or say 75c. Food prices have more than doubled

in Europe and the United States, while the rise in the cost of production in Japan has been relatively small. All these are real factors in the coming struggle for business, which will really be a contest between the white and the yellow races, between East and West.

The last attempts at strikes in the highly skilled trades in Germany were all failures. In spite of the falling value of the mark, German wages tend toward stabilization. In spite of all the Socialist talk wages keep low in many of the leading industries. In Rhineland-Westphalia, skilled diggers of coal receive the equivalent of $1 a day; trained barrow men 75c., and SO on. These are wages recently agreed upon. In other parts, such as Central Germany, where the men have been well organized, wages are only 20 per cent higher. The point in this for United States manufacturers to consider is that the more labor enters into the production the more are the high prices of raw materials compensated by low wages. It is due to this fact-viz, low wagesthat, according to the trade press of the German textile industry, the German mills have received orders from Holland and Scandinavia absorbing more than the next six months' output. The German textile manufacturers can now offer to pay the high prices for raw materials in spite of their depreciated currency, for cheap labor compensates the expensive raw material.

The wheels of German industry are beginning to revolve. Some German-made manicure scissors were quite recently offered in Sheffield at

15s. and 16s. per dozen, while the price charged by local makers is 398. Agents representing German firms are offering large quantities of enamelled ware, and they are finding a market because English makers cannot give early delivery. Larger quantities of cheap lamps are also coming from the same source, and generally the German exporters claim to be able to sell at least 30 per cent below British prices.

As regards the year's trade, Britain has converted itself from a country which was compelled to discuss bankruptcy in the early summer to a country that is now industrially paying its way. It is probably true that the output of British factories is all sold for even two years ahead. But we must remember that it is no use having the world's markets before us if we cannot supply them; it is no use that our factories should be required to work at full steam if labor lags behind the machine. If all men are working shorter hours, and no harder than before, the output must be reduced. And the only reason why we have been able to make so much industrial progress as we have made is because large numbers of women have swollen the army of labor.

The only factors which are likelv to make for the progressive wealth of the country-assuming that the men work no harder-are the improvement of mechanical methods and the continued employment of women. And quite likely the same remarks might be said about industrial conditions in the United States.

F. C. CHAPPELL.

Washington, February 25, 1920. The preliminary presidential campaign moves very slowly, with occasional sensational developments, like the letter of Governor Coolidge and the dismissal of his original campaign manager by Leonard Wood, both incidents which have cost heavily in delegate votes. It still continues to be the fact, however, so far as the straw returns can indicate, that Leonard Wood is the popular favorite on the Republican side, while some of the others, like Governor Lowden and Senator Harding, are commanding the more practical support. The opponents of General Wood among the old regulars are impartially talking of "Lowden or Harding," and apparently are willing to support either man that can show the strongest list of delegates at Chicago.

The Coolidge boom has been dropped outside of Massachusetts, and it is even undecided whether Senator Lodge and others who may be elected delegates-at-large from Massachusetts along with him will go unpledged or committed to Coolidge. They would feel more at ease if they were free, but they or Senator Lodge, at least-will stand by the Governor if he says the word. It would be a mistake to let Governor Coolidge get wholly out of the run

ning, for strange things may happen at Chicago in June. Hiram Johnson, it is expected, will be the Bryan of the Republican party in the national convention, as Roosevelt was in 1912 and 1916. Johnson's strength and influence should not be underestimated in the East, which knows the western mind too little. Neither, on the other hand, should Senator Johnson get the idea that because the League of Nations is strongly opposed in New England he can capture the New England delegates by the same token. New England is now accounted the back-bone of the Wood strength, which is more or less of a scattering affair in the West, but probably with an imposing total. MR. HOOVER'S CHIEF WEAKNESS. Hoover talk is not subsiding altogether, although no one can be found to predict that Mr. Hoover will stand much chance in the Republican convention. It is generally regarded as an imperative necessity of the hour that some party should be made and held responsible for the conduct of national affairs after March 4, 1921, and Mr. Hoover's chief weakness is his lack of party affiliation. Had he been able to resume a place in either party upon his return to private life it would be impossible for the politicians to ignore him. They don't ignore him now, for that matter, but