Painful Choices: A Theory of Foreign Policy ChangeUnder what conditions should we expect states to do things radically differently all of a sudden? In this book, David Welch seeks to answer this question, constructing a theory of foreign policy change inspired by organization theory, cognitive and motivational psychology, and prospect theory. He then "test drives" the theory in a series of comparative case studies in the security and trade domains: Argentina's decision to go to war over the Falklands/Malvinas vs. Japan's endless patience with diplomacy in its conflict with Russia over the Northern Territories; America's decision to commit large-scale military force to Vietnam vs. its ultimate decision to withdraw; and Canada's two abortive flirtations with free trade with the United States in 1911 and 1948 vs. its embrace of free trade in the late 1980s. |
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Contents
Introduction | 1 |
Surprise Anticipation and Theory | 10 |
The Case for a DecisionBased Theory of Behavior | 18 |
The Case for a Theory of Foreign Policy Change | 23 |
A Theory of Foreign Policy Change | 30 |
Building Blocks | 31 |
A LossAversion Theory of Foreign Policy Change | 45 |
Devils in the Details | 51 |
Turning Points | 129 |
The Johnson Escalation | 134 |
Nixinger and the Endgame | 147 |
How Do the Hypotheses Fare? | 160 |
Free Trade with the United States Two Funerals and a Wedding | 168 |
Overview and Background | 169 |
Laurier and the Reciprocity Agreement of 1911 | 177 |
King and the Reciprocity Nonagreement of 1948 | 185 |
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References to this book
US Foreign Policy in the Twenty-First Century: Gulliver's Travails J. Martin Rochester No preview available - 2007 |