From Tea Leaves to Opinion Polls: A Theory of Democratic LeadershipThe first in-depth analysis of the link between politicians' behavior and opinion polls. Exploring political action within a broad historical context, the book develops a theory to show how the behavior of politicians, and the unfolding of political change, have been irrevocably altered since the advent of opinion polling in the 1930s. |
Contents
A Theory | 16 |
Information and Opinion Polls | 48 |
Marshalling a bit of Evidence | 70 |
The Changing Prospects for Leadership | 95 |
The Changing Characteristics of Democratic Politicians | 121 |
Political Change | 142 |
| 199 | |
Common terms and phrases
activists adopt advent of polls agendas argue argument assumption Bill Clinton Bryan Bush campaign Chapter cians citizens claim Clinton concept course debate decisions democracy democratic develop direction of opinion distribution of opinion Downsian elected officials electorate Emancipation Proclamation estimates focus groups Franklin Roosevelt free silver Gallup Gallup Poll highly salient issues important instance Jacobs and Shapiro Johnson and Porter lead leaders leadership and followership leadership by mistake lic opinion Lincoln median position nonsalient issues observers officeholders opinion poll party system percent Periclean polarization polling data pollsters poorly informed politicians popularity pre-poll preferences President presidential prior to polls public opinion public opinion poll public support public's views rational politicians reason representative representative democracies Republicans result Robert Y Roosevelt scholars sets of politicians shift skills Stimson theory tion University Press V. O. Key voters well-informed politicians William Jennings Bryan Wilsonian leadership York