KINDS OF TIMBER.

White pine. The original stand of white pine (including Norway pine) in the Lake States has been estimated at 350 billion feet, and this does not seem excessive when everything is considered. The total cut of pine in the Lake States since lumbering began there some seventy years ago has probably been not less than 250 billion feet, and there have also been huge losses by fire. The census estimate of the stand of white pine in 1880 was less than 88 billion feet; yet, according to the annual reports of the American Lumberman, the cut since that date has exceeded 170 billion, and the amount yet remaining was placed at 50 billion by the census in 1900 and at 60 billion feet by Long in 1903. The estimate in 1880 for Minnesota was especially low-only 8,170 million feet. More than four times that quantity has since been taken out, and Minnesota is today furnishing over one-third of the whitepine cut of the United States.

Despite these cheerful statements, however, it is well known that the days of white pine are rapidly passing, and even accepting the most sanguine estimates of the present stumpage it will in a few years cease to be a large factor in the timber supply of the United States. The present annual cut is about 3 billion feet in the Lake States and 1 billion in other States. The total is less than half the cut in the Lake States alone in the latter eighties. At the annual meeting of the Northern Pine Manufacturers' Association in Minneapolis, Minn., January 22, 1907, Secretary J. E. Rhodes made this striking statement:

Since 1895, 248 firms, representing an aggregate annual output of pine lumber of 44 billion feet, have retired from business, due to the exhaustion of their timber supply. Plants representing approximately 500 million feet capacity which sawed in 1906 will not be operated in 1907.

Southern yellow pine. The census of 1880 estimated the stumpage of southern yellow pine at slightly more than 237 billion feet. The cut from 1880 to 1900 must have been in the neighborhood of 100 billion, and the estimate by the census at the latter date was 300 billion feet. Long disagreed with this, however, and estimated the stand at 187 billion, in 1903, while the Pacific Lumber Trade Journal in January, 1907, placed the present stumpage, in the opinion of the "best-known timber authorities," at 137 billion feet. This would unquestionably be the case were Long's estimate correct, as the cut since 1903 has been at least 40 billion feet. The census estimate of stumpage of yellow pine in the seven most im

portant States in 1880, Long's in 1903, and the probable cut since 1880 are shown in Table 6. The cut was estimated by assuming the ratio of pine cut to the total lumber cut for each State. The ratio selected is believed to be a conservative one.

TABLE 6.—Estimated stumpage and cut of yellow pine in seven States.

The present annual cut of yellow pine is about 12 billion feet, or a little more than one-third the total cut of all species, and the maximum has probably not been reached. Whether we accept the lowest or the highest estimate of stumpage, it is evident that within ten to fifteen years there will be a most serious shortage of yellow pine.

Spruce. The stumpage of eastern spruce was estimated at something over 12 billion feet by the census of 1880 and at 50 billion by the census of 1900, the total cut during the period perhaps approximating 30 billion feet. Our ignorance of the actual stand of spruce is further shown by the fact that Long's estimate in 1903 was 18 billion feet, while that of the American Lumberman a year and a half later was 75 billion feet. Maine has always been the great spruce-producing State, and lumbering has gone on steadily there for a longer period than anywhere else in the United States. The spruce stumpage of Maine was placed at 5 billion feet by the census of 1880 and at 21 billion by the State forest commission in 1902. In the meantime probably more than twice the quantity estimated in 1880 had been cut. The present annual cut of spruce in the United States is approximately 114 billion feet, of which Maine furnishes about one-third.

Hemlock. The stumpage of eastern hemlock was estimated at 20 billion feet by the census of 1880 and at 100 billion feet by the census of 1900. The present annual cut is approximately 3 billion feet, of which Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin furnish

about three-fourths. The cut of both eastern spruce and eastern hemlock is decreasing, while that of the western spruce and hemlock is increasing.

Douglas fir. The stumpage of Douglas fir was estimated at 300 billion feet by the census in 1900 and at 350 billion by the American Lumberman in 1905. The Pacific Lumber Trade Journal, in the article previously referred to, estimates the stand of fir in Washington alone at over 119 billion feet. The cut of Douglas fir reported for the census year 1900 was not quite 134 billion feet, while the present cut is about 412 billion feet, with every indication of a rapid increase in the future.

Western yellow pine. The stand of western yellow pine was estimated at 125 billion feet by the census of 1900, at 138 billion by Long in 1903, and at 250 billion by the American Lumberman in 1905. It is widely scattered and very difficult to estimate. The present annual cut is about 1 billion feet, with two-thirds of the production in the Pacific Coast States.

Redwood. The redwood stumpage was estimated at less than 26 billion feet by the census of 1880, and at 75 billion by the census of 1900. The annual cut, which is increasing, is now in the neighborhood of 450 million feet.

Cypress. The stumpage of cypress, for Florida and Alabama only, was estimated at a little over 2 billion feet by the census of 1880. The census of 1900 gave 65 billion feet for all States, as a probable safe figure, and this has been accepted by later estimators. The annual cut is now about three-quarters of a billion feet, with Louisiana supplying approximately 65 per cent. of the total.

Hardwood. The amount of hardwood stumpage is very indefinitely known, and is determinable only with difficulty, owing to the scattered and uneven stands. It was estimated at some 435 billion feet by the census of 1880, at possibly 300 billion by the census of 1900, and at 400 billion by the American Lumberman in 1905. Whatever the total stumpage may be, that which is fit for the saw is rapidly decreasing. The hardwood cut in 1900 was 8,634,000,000 feet; in 1904, 6,781,000,000 feet. The present annual cut of hardwoods is about 5 billion feet, consisting of approximately 43 per cent. oak, 12 per cent. poplar, 9 per cent. maple, and lesser amounts of numerous other species.

*

*

*

*

Such, in brief, are the leading estimates of our forest resources. Though a hasty glance at Table 4 might make it appear that the supply of timber is actually increasing, since some of the later

estimates are the larger, and in several instances much more timber has been cut from certain regions than was estimated as existing in 1880, this inference would be altogether wrong. Many of the early estimates were based wholly upon inadequate data, and also did not include a great deal of timber that is now considered merchantable. As the timber in any region becomes scarcer the minimum cutting limit is constantly lowered, and timber is taken which was formerly rejected. In New England, for example, 6 inches is now a common cutting diameter for white pine, while in some localities on the Pacific coast nothing below 18 inches is cut.

No one who is at all familiar with the situation doubts for an instant that we are rapidly using up our forest capital. In fact, it is unquestionably safe to say that our present annual consumption of wood in all forms is from three to four times as great as the annual increment of our forests. Even by accepting the highest estimate of the amount of timber standing we postpone for only a few years the time when there must be a great curtailment in the use of wood if the present methods of forest exploitation are continued. Every indication points to the fact that under present conditions the maximum annual yield of forest products for the country as a whole has been reached, and that in a comparatively short time. there will be a marked decrease in the total output, as there is now in several items. Neither is there any great supply of timber to turn to outside of the United States. With the exception of importations of small quantities of high-class woods like mahogany, the only promising source is Canada; but most of the timber there will be required at home. Even now Douglas fir is bringing higher prices in Canadian than in American markets. The course of prices of white pine, yellow poplar, and hemlock since 1887 and of yellow pine since 1894 is shown in fig. 2. The quotations are for the first of each year.

FOREST OWNERSHIP.

In view of conditions which undeniably exist it becomes of the utmost importance that vigorous steps be taken to insure a future. supply of timber. The most liberal estimate which has been made of the wooded area of the United States that of the Geological Survey-places it at 700 million acres, while other careful estimators have placed the forest area as low as 500 million acres. Table 7 gives the wooded area of each State according to the Geological Survey, together with the area of National Forests, or Federal forest reserves, that of State forest reserves, and that of the private or unreserved public forests. The latter item was determined by

PRICE-DOLLARS

deducting the area of State or National Forests in each State from the total wooded area, and in consequence of using this method certain sources of error are introduced. The National Forests in Nebraska and Kansas are not wooded areas, but areas which are more suitable for the production of timber than for ordinary agriculture, and they were set aside for the purpose of forest planting. A considerable amount of open land is included within the boundaries of other National Forests; and it is probable that in some States the total wooded area is greater than that estimated by the Geological Survey. Thus, while no figures are given for the private and unreserved public forests in Utah and Wyoming there is quite an area of such forests in these States, and more than is indicated in a number of other States.

1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 190)

TIME -YEARS

FIG. 2.-Range of lumber prices, 1887 to 1897.

36.25

22.25