1859.]

APPROACHING THE CRISIS.

25

of sixteen degrees (about 1,200 miles) its circumference took in Baltimore, St. Louis, about half of Mexico, all of Central America, and the best portions of the coast along the Caribbean Sea. The project was, to establish an empire with this circle for its territory, and by controlling four great staples-rice, tobacco, sugar, and cottonpractically govern the commercial world. Just how great a part this secret organization played in the scheme of secession, nobody that was not in its counsels can say; but it is certain that it boasted, probably with truth, a membership of many thousands.

The Kansas troubles went on during Buchanan's administration, and that President continued the policy of his predecessor in lending the whole power of the Government to the pro-slavery party, while the best and strongest elements in the Northern States were rapidly moulding themselves into a compact political organization for a definite and determined purpose. The day of compromise was gone by, and John Brown's conspiracy at Harper's Ferry gave a lurid setting to the day of peace. Thus, in a country that boasted popular government and the largest measure of liberty, the times were ripened and the passions heated for a desperate civil war.

To

"BUT what king, going to make war against another king, sitteth not down first and consulteth whether he be able with ten thousand to meet him that cometh against him with twenty thousand?" This quotation would naturally come to the lips of the student of history if, knowing that the population of all the slave States in 1860 was but ten millions, while that of the free States was twenty millions, he should suddenly come upon the fact of the great civil war. But those who led the secession movement, and most of their followers, thought there were other circumstances to offset the discrepancy in numbers and wealth.

They believed that in the possession of the cotton that was wanted for British looms, and in their readiness to adopt a free-trade policy, they had a guaranty of help from England, if help should be needed. And this belief was not without reason. They believed that Southern soldiers would be more than a match, man for man, for Northern ones. And this belief, though ridiculously exaggerated, was based on a certain truth, which was evident at the beginning of the war, but disappeared as the contest proceeded. In

1860.]

RELIANCE OF THE SECESSIONISTS.

27

most instances, the Northern man had to learn how to manage his horse and fire his gun after he had enlisted; but the planter's son had been trained to these exercises from boyhood. They counted also on the enormous advantage that earth-works and arms of precision give to men who are fighting on the defensive. More than all, perhaps, they counted on active assistance in the heart of the North itself; and though this, like all other reliances, failed them in the test, they had not been unreasonable in expecting it. A great party of the North had for years voted steadily in their interest and at their dictation; and now some of its leaders, including two of the most eminent, assured them of success.

On January 6, 1860, ex-President Franklin Pierce had written to Jefferson Davis (who had been Secretary of War in his Cabinet) a letter in which he said: "Without discussing the question of right-of abstract power to secede-I have never believed that actual disruption of the Union. can occur without blood; and if through the madness of Northern abolitionists that dire calamity must come, the fighting will not be along Mason and Dixon's line merely. It will be within our own borders, and in our own streets, between the two classes, of citizens to whom I have referred. Those who defy law and scout constitutional obligations will, if we ever reach the arbitrament of arms, find occupation enough at home." Horatio Seymour, in a speech at Albany (January 31, 1861), said: "It would be

28

RELIANCE OF THE SECESSIONISTS.

[1860.

an act of folly and madness, in entering upon this contest, to underrate our opponents, and thus subject ourselves to the disgrace of defeat in an inglorious warfare. Let us also see if successful coercion by the North is less revolutionary than successful secession by the South. . . . In what way is this warfare to be conducted? None have been mad enough to propose to muster armies to occupy their territory! When unnatural war shall have brought upon our people its ruin, and upon our nation its shame, to what ground shall we be brought at last? To that we should have accepted at the outset." A South Carolina Congressman, when he read the account of the convention at which this speech was delivered, exclaimed: "There will be more men in New York alone to fight for us than the whole North can put down!"

The secessionists relied also, for an advantageous start, upon the timidity of President Buchanan and the influence that might be exerted over him by the Southern members of his Cabinet; and in this at least their expectations were fully met. A favorite argument was made by comparison with the War of Independence. It was constantly said, "If the thirteen colonies, with fewer than three million inhabitants, established their independence of Great Britain, what shall hinder the South from succeeding, when she has several times that number of people and so much greater resources?" This appeared to have great popular influence, and yet it was the weakest of all the

1860.]

THE FALLACY OF SECESSION.

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arguments advanced, and is a good illustration of the fallacies that often sway the multitude. It took no account of the fact that in 1776 the enemy had to come across a broad ocean, and steam power had not been thought of, while now the enemy would be at their very doors, and with steamships, locomotives, and telegraphs could bring great resources into rapid action. It ignored the timely and powerful assistance that the colonies had received from France. Above all, it overlooked the fact that George the Third could lose his American subjects and still have an empire left, while the struggle of our people against secession was a question of national life or death.

The strangest thing was, not that the secessionists expected to succeed in dividing the country and setting up an independent confederacy, but that they ever persuaded themselves and the Southern people that this, even if it could be accomplished without a war, would be a remedy for their grievance. If slave property was insecure when the fugitive had to traverse hundreds of miles of United States territory to reach Canada, how much more insecure it would have been with the liberty-line brought down to the very door of his cabin, so that he would only have to step over into a free State to find himself safe in a foreign country. Abolitionists and incendiary documents were already as thoroughly excluded from the South as they ever could be under any circumstances. The seceding States certainly could not expect to take more than half of the unsettled