Causes on the Social Condition, or Man in relation to his Political Institutions," will be particularly considered.

V. The career of the Arabians illustrates strikingly the great sociological law, that the higher the organism of the society, or body politic, the more liable it is to derangement, disease, and death. It may well be considered extraordinary that the Arabians should be found to illustrate, with such remarkable distinctness and perspicuity, so many of the most fundamental and important principles of social science. It might really appear as if they had been placed there, on their great grim deserts, for the express purpose, among others, of serving as a sort of illustrative black board, (such as are used in the primary schools for the instruction of youth,) on which the social philosopher might, by means of the figures sketched thereupon, by the outlines of their own history, be enabled to trace the demonstration of some of the most important theorems in social science.

Not only are the principles which have been already remarked upon, in this part of our review, practically illustrated with greater clearness and force by the history of the Arabians than by that of any other nation, but so also is the one which we now come to notice. If, indeed, the observant social philosopher lacked the reasoning power necessary to deduce the proposition in question, either from a priori principles or from the wide-spread analogies of organic nature, he could scarcely fail to discover it, when attentively observing the history of the Arabians, where it is so clearly and prominently revealed as to be almost palpable to the outward sense.

In observing the history of the Arabians we see a race of people, numbering some ten or twelve millions, thinly scattered over a sterile area of a million of square miles, subsisting in a state but little elevated above the merely pastoral as to their modes of industry, and but little above the merely patriarchal as to their forms of government, remaining in this state without any noteworthy mutations of fortune, and without any apparent symptoms of deterioration or decay, for a period of more than three thousand years-yet shooting forth a colony of religious propagandists and conquerors, who, in a more fertile region, were quickly developed into a much more highly organized society, abounding in wealth and the arts of civilization, which languished, sickened, and died, in little over five centuries. In short, we see a race of people subsisting with little or no change for three thousand years in the rudely organized society which has prevailed from time immemorial on the sandy wastes of Arabia, who, in the highly organized social state which prevailed under the Caliphs of Bagdad, could not maintain their position as a nation over five hundred.

The illustration afforded by this contrast between the durations of the two different states of society is all the more pointed and perspicuous because the two societies were composed of the same race of people, and were placed under like local circumstances, except that one occupied a more fertile region than the other, thus almost totally excluding any other conclusion, than that the difference in duration was attributable to the difference in the degree of organism. Had the Bagdad society been composed of a different race of people from the Arabians, or of the same race of people issuing out of a different clime, as the frigid zone or northern portion of the temperate zone, into the torrid plains of central Asia, the illustration would have been far less pointed and unequivocal.

Nor is much importance to be attached to the fact that the Bagdad society was far more exposed to foreign violence, by which it was ostensibly overthrown, than that of Arabia, which has ever been indebted for its immunity from invasion to its vast sterility. For, as Hallam has remarked most justly, concerning the ruin of Roman literature and civilization, that we must not ascribe it altogether to the barbarian destroyers of the Empire, but rather to the gradual and apparently irretrievable decay which had long overspread all liberal studies;* so also is it equally true that the real vitality of the Empire of the Caliphs had departed, long before the disastrous morning of the 14th of February, 1258, when Hoolaku, with his barbarous Mongols, entered Bagdad in triumph and devastation.

This great law of social life, thus clearly revealed to us by the history of the Arabians-the higher the organism of the society or body politic the greater its liability to derangement, disease, and death-appears to be but one manifestation of the like more general law of all organic life, although, like other laws, it has its qualifications and limitations, which, to superficial observation, might wear the appearance of contradiction. For we find that vegetable life has a tenacity unknown to the animal, and the lower orders of animal life, (or very many of them at least,) a tenacity unknown to the higher-human life, the highest and most refined of all organic life, being liable to a multiplicity of derangements and diseases, from which the lower orders of animals are entirely exempt, and requiring a far greater degree of care and attention to preserve it.

In accordance with this great fundamental law of social life, we may predict for a rude and simple state of society, like that of Arabia, under given circumstances, a very protracted, if not indefinite, duration; for a somewhat more advanced and highly organized state, like that of China, a shorter duration; and for a still more highly organized state, like that which prevailed in Greece and Italy in former times, and in Britain and America at the present time, under like circumstances, a still shorter duration.

A yet deeper observation than any of those already made might appear to be suggested by the history of the Arabians. May it not be considered that the great duration of Arabian society, without any apparent symptoms of decay, is a contradiction of the idea, which seems to be established by the irresistible logic of analogy, that nations, like individuals, must die? To this question it may be replied, that perhaps the Arabians owe their great duration to the fact that they have not had any real organization, as a nation or society. For, in looking at the three grand kingdoms of nature, the mineral, vegetable, and animal, we find that the first, which is inorganic, exhibits no symptoms of decay or change; the gases of the atmosphere, and the waters of the ocean, remaining unalterably the same for untold ages. Now, may it not be that mankind, in the rude state in which the Arabians have existed at home, for time immemorial, resemble rather the inorganic than the organic division of nature-that they belong to the mineral kingdom, so to speak, of the social universe-that they constitute merely the raw material out of which real social organism is to be created, and consequently have no real social life to lose?

• See Hallam's Middle Ages, chap. ix.

But a deeper observation yet remains to be considered, and intimately related to the one last noticed. Does not the long duration of these Arabians, without any symptoms of decay, completely negative, at least the idea, that the human race is destined ultimately to DIE OUT by the operation of natural causes, and independently of any influences which may be regarded as extraneous causes, such as the too great refrigeration or torrification of the planet, or its collision with another world, or its ignition by the too close contact of its gases with those of a comet? For the logic of analogy does not much more conclusively pronounce the inevitable death by natural decay of every social organism than of the whole human creation--the death of every nation, than the death of the whole human race, and all organic being. From the undoubted fact that every individual must die, by an established law of natural decay, the irresistible logic of analogy seems to lead us to the inevitable conclusion, that not only every particular social organism, but the whole human race, must eventually die, by an established law of natural decay. Nay, may we not still further say that, from the simple fact that the first germ cell of organic being was destined to perish, the irresistible logic of universal analogy seems to deduce the inevitable conclusion that the whole organic creation (at least as it now exists) is destined also to perish?-thus verifying the grand postulate of Fourier, that "all things have a beginning, a middle, and an end, in the natural course of their existence-animals, vegetables, minerals, planets, suns, solar systems, universes, biniverses, triverses."

But, it may well be asked, how stands this asseveration of the irresistible logic of universal analogy, in view of the stubborn fact glaring on us from the sandy wastes of Arabia, that there have flourished, for upwards of three thousand years, without any apparent symptoms of decay, a race of people who, as if to make their case still more remarkable, have intermixed with other races less perhaps than any other people, and who have, to a greater extent perhaps than any other people, intermarried within too close affinities, the only influence yet revealed by biological science which seems to contain the germ of the natural extinction of the human race? Perhaps the only reply that can be made to this question is, the one so common with those who encounter facts too tough to be digested by their theory, but who yet have the courage, like true philosophers, to swallow them down, to take in all the facts, however unpalatable-that the world is as yet too young to furnish a satisfactory answer. to the question.

At all events, a further reply to the question, or attempt at solution of the difficulty, will not be made here.* Nor is it perhaps of any great practical utility to consider it anywhere, since the physician or medical philosopher does not vary his treatment of a patient at all, nor any less zealously strive to preserve his life and health, because he knows that he must eventually die at any rate; nor should the social philosopher, or physician of the body politic, any less earnestly strive to prolong the existence and prosperity of a nation, merely because he has discovered the

melancholy fact that it must, some time or other, inevitably die, and the whole human race beside.

What has been said must suffice for the observations to be obtained from a review of the Arabian civilization, which, according to the plan here adopted for regarding the whole course of human development, comprises the Medieval Epoch, or second day of human civilization, or, in more popular language still, the Arabian Day.

The day of Arabian civilization was, however, of brief duration, not much exceeding five centuries, and it is remarkable that the period of its greatest splendor corresponded with the midnight hour of European barbarism-a fact which would seem to indicate that the intellectual world, like the material, has its antipodes, in which day and night respectively alternate-although all the facts of the case do not accord with the supposition, as grounded at least upon the idea that Europe and Arabia are antipodes, since we presently find them both involved, for a short period, in a common darkness.

With the fall of Bagdad, by the conquering arms of Hoolaku and his barbarous Mongols, on the 14th of February, A. D., 1258, we may consider the light of Arabian learning as extinguished. That may be regarded as the hour of SUNSET to the SECOND CIVILIZATION, and from that hour, for at least two-and-a-half centuries, the anxious observer of human history may search the firmament in vain to find the sun, although the reddening horizon of Europe clearly indicates from what direction is to be expected the COMING DAY.

Art. II.-VALUATION OF LIFE INSURANCE POLICIES.

NUMBER III.

THE method adopted by the Massachusetts Commissioners to determine the liabilities of life insurance offices, when applied to our American companies, has developed, in every case, a larger or a smaller surplus. In some the excess is considerable; in a few it is so small that any extraordinary losses, or any additional requirements of the commissioners, would have converted their surplus into a deficiency. We have insisted, in the last number of this Magazine, that every cent of profit already earned is exhibited by the Massachusetts calculations, so that if any company cannot stand this test it is already insolvent. We now propose to inquire if this mode of calculation does not give the earnings too large. Our companies are mostly mutual, and it is the duty of the directors to distribute exact justice between the present and the future members. What has been really earned belongs to the existing insurers, and ought to be distributed among them without delay. What is not earned belongs to the future members, and no rivalry with other companies, no desire for larger business, no craving for the praise of successful management, should impel larger dividends than have been earned; and, on the other hand, no timid fear of the failure, no unreasonable anticipation of future disasters, should lead to the hoarding up for possible demands what has been really earned already, and what, therefore, belongs to the present members. None of these feelings, or any other like them, should be permitted to outweigh, on either side, the sentiment of justice.

The whole object of the calculation is to find out what part of the past receipts has been paid for future purposes; the balance on hand is all that can be appropriated for dividends. If the company is mutual this exact balance-no more and no less should be divided, in scrip, in cash, or in credits, to the present members. If less is paid them, they do not receive their proper share of the profits; if more, the safety of the company is endangered. Should there be any leaning to either side, it will be better to favor the future members than the present, since the ultimate security of the company is more important than a correct adjustment of the dividends. But after the company has been fairly and securely established, exact justice should be rendered to the old and the new members. It is much the same with a stock company as with a mutual. If they anticipate future profits which may or may not be made; if they omit, in their estimate of future hazards, any contingency which was provided for in the original contract, the large dividends or expenses which they may think themselves authorized to make will soon consume their capital and leave them unable to meet their liabilities.

So also in determining the solvency of any company. The funds provided in the original contracts for future hazards or necessities that have not yet occurred must be kept unimpaired. If they are anticipated and wasted the company becomes bankrupt. If the contracts were very favorable; if the premiums agreed upon were higher than was needed to meet all the future hazards, so as to furnish some profit, all the gains from this source as they may come in hand may be divided; but no future expectation of profit should be discounted and appropriated for present dividends. A present or past profit is a reality, but a future one ought not to be anticipated and divided. A private individual does not so estimate his means, nor should an association do it. The future is too uncertain to be made the support of present expenditures. The possibilities of failure in future expectations of profits are so numerous, and the proneness to overestimate them is so great, that it is unwise to count them as already in hand. So great has been been the competition in life insurance that they are probably small, and it is so easy to make the grossest mistakes in counting them, that it is best to leave them to the future. From the day that the milk maid anticipated her future brood of chickens, the expectation of future gains has been deemed a subject of ridicule, and the expenditure or use of anticipated profits a subject of censure.

Whatever, therefore, be the object of valuing the life policies-whether it be the distribution of profits in a mutual or in a stock company, or the determination of the solvency of the office-past earnings are all that can be counted for present use, and if more is thus appropriated the safety of the company is at once endangered, and it becomes the State to sound the alarm, that its citizens be not deceived and ruined.

This being laid down as the proper basis of calculation, let us consider the elements of a whole life premium. Part of it is for the risk during the first year, part for the risk during all subsequent years, and part for expenses and contingencies. The last, which constitutes the loading, ranges from thirty to forty per cent of the first two. Now, though the first year's expenses may be, in a well managed company, twelve or fifteen per cent; the subsequent years can seldom be as large as ten, unless the