remote or improbable. But let us remember that what has happened already more than once may at any time happen again. What in earlier times required a long period and an unusual concurrence of circumstances to bring about, may in these days of frequent innovation, of rapid movement, and of almost morbid impatience, be at our very doors before we are more than vaguely warned of its approach. Is this a fanciful representation. Let us test it by the experience of facts. Who in the first week of February, 1848, foresaw that the political movement in France announced more than the overthrow of a ministry and some extension of the popular franchise; that before the close of the month not only a sovereign but a dynasty would be expelled from the throne and realm of France; and that a republic would as suddenly be established on the ruins of the exploded monarchy? Who could have imagined that in little more than eight weeks from the period of those events Berlin would be in the hands of its populace, Vienna at the mercy of its students and volunteers, Metternich an exile and the Pope an fugitive? Who among those who went to bed in authority on the night which preceded the famous coup d'état at Paris suspected that by daylight next morning he would be a prisoner or a convict, holding his liberty and his life at the will of a citizen, who had just before sworn fidelity to the Commonwealth over which he presided? Let us not forget that a few words addressed by the French Emperor to the Austrian ambassador at his Court on New-Year's Day in 1859 gave to Europe the first intimation of a war which in less than six months made the dream of Italian resurrection a reality; and that the colossal struggle, now frantically raging in America from one end of the Union to the other, was unperceived by European forethought less than a year ago, and was then, even to American vigilance, no bigger than the prophet's embryo cloud on a remote horizon. Did not the massacres in Syria come upon us by surprise? Did we not feel the necessity of hastening to assist in their suppression? Were we not placed in the alternative of either sending out an expedition ourselves, or relying on the arms and good faith of a rival Power? Have we now any substantial security against the recurrence of similar horrors, of a similar necessity, and a similar hazard? But those who respect the faith of treaties, and acknowledge the claims of international law, may give full credit to others for acting upon the same principles. Such parties may consequently find in the terms agreed upon at Paris a sufficient barrier against any dan ger to which the Ottoman Empire might otherwise be liable from inherent weakness or habitual misgovernment. For our own part, we should be glad to share this confidence, and to find it borne out by the consistent practice of nations. We fear, however, that experience, which cannot be discarded from political calculations with safety, points but too often in a contrary direction. Some temporary pressure or change of political relations will never be wanting to excuse a loose attention to formal engagements. Duty has the pliancy of a sentiment; interest operates with the force of a natural law. When the wind is too strong for plain sailing, we take in our canvas, and drive before the gale sometimes even under bare poles. The Congress of Vienna has something to teach us in this respect. Never were the interests of human society more generally or more deeply concerned than when that imposing assembly sat in judgment on the collisions of Europe. Never did plenipotentiaries meet under circumstances of greater solemnity. Never was there a louder call for honest dealing and durable settlement-for that kind of policy, wise as generous, which lays a broad foundation on interests common to all the parties, and of which it must be allowed that our own country set an example worthy of more general imitation. Lo! half a century has not elapsed since the completion of its labours, and where are now the results of them? Can any one deny that they have become little more than a record and a name? Have they held good in Italy? Have they prevented the territorial aggrandisement of France? Have they protected the rights of Switzerland? Have they not been openly violated or tacitly disregarded in favour of the very parties whom they were expressly intended to restrain? When the Emperor Nicholas suggested the dismemberment of Turkey, was he not bound to that treaty which in 1841 declared the maintenance of the Turkish Empire in its integrity to be a point of solemn agreement amongst the parties who signed it? During the negotiation of the last Treaty of Paris, in 1856, and since its conclusion, have not appearances in some measure warranted the prevailing impression that France and Russia were prepared, however cautiously, to act in concert, and by a joint clandestine action to bring on a solution of the Eastern question in their own sense? On a distant and very different theatre, have more than seventy years of brotherhood in the same constitutional system prevented the two great divisions of Washington's Union from tearing their closest ties asunder, and treating each other, respectively, as tyrants and rebels, the former enforcing and the latter dissolving their mutual obliga- | here supposed, may be improbable; the very tions, with equal injustice and questionable supposition of it may be unjust: but, when faith? There is but too much reason, moreover, to apprehend that the guaranty of 1856, far from holding good in the hour of trial, may prove a snare to the Turks as well as to our selves, without furnishing any real security against the dangers to which their dilapidated empire is exposed from other quarters. They, in their reliance on the treaty, are tempted to neglect the improvement of their internal resources, while we, confiding in the honest sincerity of our purpose, are disinclined to counteract their negligence by our own effective and well-timed exertions. A very important interest comes in aid of the duties prescribed to us on behalf of Turkey by our own obligations under the late treaty of peace. We are dependent on the Porte for our most direct and speedy communications with India. In proportion as Her Majesty's dominions in that country become identified with the Government at home, it is desirable that the establishment of intercourse between both should be, as much as possible, rapid and sure. Whether the telegraphic wires, and eventually the conveyance by steam, be carried over the Isthmus of Suez, or along the valley of the Euphrates, both lines must stand in need of Turkish protection; and it is evident that whatever tends to weaken or endanger that protection must be injurious to our interests in no common degree. Let us imagine Egypt in the possession of a Power whose population, active, warlike, intelligent, and ambitious, is ever prone to entertain a jealous and not unfrequently a hostile feeling towards England. The Mediterranean shores of Egypt are so well fortified-thanks to the skill of French engineers -that whether the Viceroy were to raise the standard of independence, or to be overpowered by foreign stratagem, we should have little chance, and the Porte still less, either of bringing him to order, or of rescuing him from the toils, except, perhaps, from the side of Syria, and not even there, if the famous canal, with its intended system of defences and its magnificent breadth of water, were brought into complete operation. In the time of the late tremendous mutiny in India we should have acted with more immediate effect if a continuous line of electric wires had been at our disposal; and how much greater would have been our difficulties, had the passage by Suez been closed to our dispatches and our officers-had Sir Colin Campbell, for instance, been compelled to reach the scene of his future triumphs by a voyage round the Cape! The case, as such momentous interests are at stake, it is our business to keep a good look-out, and our bounden duty to take early precautions against the worst that may happen in course of time. These eventualities, remember, are to be taken in connection with the magnitude of their consequences, should they at any time. occur. We must take them also in connection with the requirements of our trade on those inland seas which bathe the extensive coasts of European and Asiatic Turkey, with the vast political interests which may be said to constitute us the natural supporters of the Ottoman Empire, and with the treaty obligations which, if they be allowed to come practically into force, must sooner or later involve us in many perilous embarrassments and costly sacrifices. Our minds are thus involuntarily driven into an inquiry, bris tling indeed with obstacles, but also full of interest and instruction. What, we ask, is the real condition of that empire, in whose destiny we cannot but feel that our country is deeply concerned? How far is the prevailing opinion of its decay and approaching downfall borne out by facts? What are the nature and extent of its remaining resources? By what means can they be so drawn out as to avert or postpone indefinitely its utter ruin and dismemberment? These questions, in truth, are not of easy solution; but they lie in our path, and must be examined, before we can hope to arrive at any distinct and satisfactory conclusion. We owe to one, who is generally considered to be a profound though an unprincipled writer, the remark which, no doubt, possesses much truth, that 'a conqueror has no middle course between the two extremes of mixing his own people with the vanquished race, or exterminating the latter' The Turkish camp in its conquering period, with a sultan on horseback for its leader, acted neither on the one nor on the other of these two principles. Jew, Christian, Hindoo, idolater, all, on submission and payment of tribute to the conquering Mussulman, were left in the enjoyment of their respective properties, in the exercise of their respective forms of worship, and, to a certain degree, under the local authority of magistrates be longing, in each case, to their own race and creed. Machiavelli's maxim is vividly illus trated by the consequences of this undecided policy, and the Sultan's government is now reaping in progressive weakness what it ori ginally sowed in the plenitude of self-relying power. Its Christian subjects, those of the Greek Church in particular, live, and may, in despite of much past oppression and continued humiliation, thrive, apart from their Mussulman fellow-subjects, by whom they are viewed rather as objects of mistrust than as sources of strength to the empire. at large. The changes adopted of late years in their favour, though mitigating in practice the disadvantages, have not essentially altered. the character of their political position. Their numbers, wealth, and knowledge are generally on the increase, while the professors of Islamism decline for the most part in those respects, under the influence of circumstances peculiar to their social condition. The Sultan exercises a supreme sovereign authority over all classes of the population in his empire. He is at the same time a caliph, hereditary successor of the Prophet, and, in our language, commander of the faithful. The laws, by which he governs and distributes justice through his ministers, are fundamentally those of the Koran and its supplementary traditions, constituting, in the estimation of Mussulmans, as we all know, the revealed will of God, immutable and allsufficient. This rule of administration derives an obstructive character from its want of ability to adapt itself to the variable necessities of society, and to the expanding views of mankind. It operates, moreover, as an evergrowing source of discontent among those portions of the population in Turkey who have no religious convictions capable of reconciling them to an arbitrament disposing of life, property, and honour, without any fixed adherence to the rules of sound reason or of common experience, and gradually becoming more and more discredited by the evasions and corruptions which stain, while they facilitate, its administration. The original mission of Islamism, which was to force all nations into its pale, either as conformists or as tributary subjects, had naturally the effect of placing its professors in a state of hostility felt, if not declared, with all their independent neighbours. For the former, it sanctified acts of aggression, not otherwise justified, on the rights of every non-Mussulman country, and made resistance, even of the preventive kind, a duty and a necessity on the part of such country's inhabitants. The process, impulsive as it was, and long most wonderfully successful, carried in its bosom a principle of exhaustion which eventually made its further progress impossible, and reduced the tide of conquest to a state of stagnation rather fatal to its energy than productive of any sounder vitality. The same development of intelligence and power among the border states, which enabled them to say to the Turkish empire, 'Hitherto and no further,' rendered more apparent and less tolerable the vices of its internal system of government. The Christians within and the Christians without derived encouragement from their mutual sympathies, which gave fresh aliment to the hopes of the former and a higher motive to the ambition of the latter. It may readily occur to any one who compares the East with the West in point of public administration, that, as a general, though varying distinction between them, in Eastern communities the people are held to exist for the Government, and in Western the Government for the people. In this respect the Porte does not belie its Oriental origin. Simplicity of form, and constitutional indolence, when there is no immediate stimulant to rouse it, serve, however, to qualify the action of Ottoman authority; and since the introduction of certain reforms, the Sultan's Government are less insensible than of yore to the claims of humanity and the welfare of their subjects. But enough remains of the old leaven to excuse our entertaining some anxiety as to what principles and what measures are likely to impress a permanent character on the reign of Abdul Aziz. The first appearances on his accession announced, no doubt, a desire of improvement, but whether in a Turkish sense or according to the notions of Europe-whether reactionary or progressive-is by no means so clear. A few months, or even a few weeks, may determine the question. Whatever the determination may be, it can hardly fail to give a decisive turn to the fate of the Turkish empire. Education, as directed among the Turks, the practice of domestic slavery, and, above all, the influence of the harem, are matters not to be overlooked by any one who seeks with conscientious earnestness to form a correct opinion on this momentous subject. It cannot be denied that they are so many obstacles to the social and political regeneration of Turkey. Each of the enumerated difficulties must be taken into account, as affecting, more or less, the whole population of the country, as well the families who live by their skill, their trade, or their labour, as those who either belong to the several professions, or who enjoy the advantages of wealth and station alike in town or in country. The Turkish children of both sexes are brought up together in the harem to an age which immediately precedes puberty. The boys are then submitted to a separate treatment. Most parents in easy, and all in opulent circumstances, have a tutor at home for their sons. Others resort to such instruction as can be obtained at the established schools, where, with scarcely an exception, the teaching is confined to religious doctrine, and the simplest elements of secular knowledge, with no language but Turkish or Arabic. What passes in the harem is little known without; but the girls, at best, are sure not to learn more than the boys, unless it be needlework and the details of household economy. To ride, to throw the djerid, and to shoot at a target, are manly exercises reserved, or nearly so, for youths of condition and their principal attendants. Of slavery little need be said. The moral effect, especially on young people, of having for servants or companions unhappy creatures possessing no will of their own, and regarded in law as hardly better than cattle, may be easily conceived, though the records of antiquity prove that, notwithstanding its evil tendency, that element of corruption may coexist in the same minds with much intellectual vigour and a high sense of public duty. The harem operates far more perniciously on the interests of society. It confines to the narrow circle of each family those holy influences of the wife, the mother, aud the daughter, which in Christian countries purify and irradiate the whole sphere of social life, in so far as human infirmities allow. It taints, moreover, and degrades those influences within its own contracted limits; it entertains an atmosphere in which the low, ungenerous passions grow into luxuriance, and it tends even to counteract by their indulgence the purposes of a beneficent Cre ator. flows in upon the capital, and produces there a fallacious appearance of prosperity. Think of a freehold estate comprising some forty thousand acres in surface, with a large proportion of it arable, and much timber, conveniently situated near a port and market town, within eighty miles of Constantinople by water, having been sold not long since for 16007., after being possessed during several years by English proprietors, and improved through the management of an English bailiff! The decrease of population affects the reve nue and the army, as well as the agriculture of the empire. The taxes on land and produce are generally assessed for periods of not less than four or five years. The proprietors in every separate district of assessment are made responsible for the whole amount, and consequently, as they diminish in number, a greater burthen is thrown upon each, together with less capability of meeting the demand and farming with profit. In regard to the army, which is recruited by conscription from among the Mahometans, a failure in the required number of men has been felt for seve ral years. This deficiency makes it difficult for the Government to spare those youths who, in many cases, are wanted for agricul ture or the support of a family. Owing to the same cause two thirds of the Ottoman army exist only on paper, and there follows not merely a greater disposition to disorder in the provinces, but also a more exhausting Mahometan Turkey is thus infected with a pressure on the service, and less preparation poison which circulates with its blood, and for defence against external enemies. Many goes far to explain those signs of a declining parts of Turkey are highlands inhabited by population, which, except in the capital, and wild tribes, warlike in character, independent at some few favoured points elsewhere, attract in their habits, and brought very imperfectly, the attention and excite the wonder of foreign- if at all, under subjection to the Porte. Such ers in that country. More than a century has for instance are the Koords, the Albanians, passed away since tokens of depopulation the Bosnians, the mountaineers of Taurus, were noticed there. If we remember right, Lebanon, and Montenegro. Such were those they did not escape the observant researches who under the command of Scanderbeg so of Montesquieu. Fifty years ago, as now, long resisted whole armies sent or led against houses tumbling into ruin, or spaces cum- them by renowned viziers or the Sultan himbered with fragments of building, were re-self in person. Such were the progenitors of marked by travellers in town and village. Graveyards with Turkish tombstones were seen by the way-side, or in open fields, apart and far away from inhabited places. Both in Europe and in Asia large tracts of desolation, marked here and there by traces of the plough nearly obliterated, gave evidence of a declining empire. Whatever increase of buildings and inhabitants may be observed at Constantinople or at Smyrna, we cannot venture to take it as any proof to the contrary, since it is well known that, whenever the means of living, or of living securely, in the provinces fall off without a prospect of revival, the rural or provincial population Druse and Maronite, opposed in quenchless hatred to each other, but capable of forming an impenetrable barrier against the Turks. The Sultan's troops, who may be said to act as a police with respect to these unruly popu lations, would have no lack of employment, were military conscription carried out even to the whole of its intended extent. The various defects and sources of incalculable evil, thus rather enumerated than drawn out into their full proportions, are the more ruinous in a country where a low standard of knowledge, a rude system of finance, a loose method of collecting the revenue, and the want of internal communications, go far of themselves to neutralize the advantages of a | indebted to the bad policy of the Turks in splendid climate, a productive soil, and an unrivalled position as well for power as for trade. providing no carriageable road between Sivas. and the port of shipment. No objection to railways can be charged to the Koran. ConThe practice of forcing a debased coinage tracts for several have been made by the into circulation has been long a source of Porte with companies or enterprising individisorder and discredit with consequent weak-duals. With the exception, however, of thirty ness in Turkey. That of issuing bonds or assignats on the faith of an arbitrary government has of late increased the mischief. The exposure of the Mirès loan has made it extremely difficult for the Porte to seek any immediate relief in the money-markets of Europe. Her ministers therefore resorted to a fresh and very extensive issue of paper money under the name of Kaimès, not, as heretofore, confined to the capital, but constituting a legal tender in all parts of the empire. Necessity may excuse the measure, but its effect, especially if the Kaimès should be used for paying up the arrears of the army, was not the less to be apprehended as a further source of distress and disorder. miles at Kustandjee on the Black Sea, and about as much at Smyrna, none have yet been carried into effect. Another evil in the department of finance is the habit of farming the principal branches of revenue. This practice has nothing to recommend it but the ministerial convenience of having more positive and earlier data for the estimates of the year. Farming embraces sub-farming, and this part of the system weighs with peculiar severity on the tax-payer without augmenting the receipts of the treasury. Every artifice is employed by the lowest grade of farmers in order to realize a profit on their purchase-money, and the exactions they resort to for this purpose must be supported by authority as a necessary condition of the system. No country has more need of railways than Turkey. Nowhere can they be introduced with less sacrifice. When they were first adopted in England, the countless millions spent on turnpike-roads, if not entirely confiscated, were at least superseded by the new invention. In the Sultan's dominions, with scarcely an exception, there are no roads. The inland communications are mere tracks, wide enough in some parts, and in fine weather levelled enough by use, for carts and small waggons, but generally more fit for horses and camels. Wherever by exception a causeway has been laid down, for the passage, perhaps, of troops and artillery, it be longs to earlier times, and now rather interrupts than assists communication by its broken pavement and clumsy construction. There are districts in Asia Minor-that of Sivas, for instance-where grain is so abundant as to sell for an old song; while on the Black Sea coast, not a hundred miles off, the rival produce of Russia commands a high price. For this advantage the Russians are VOL. CXI. 14 Local wants, if not supplied from the seat of government, have little chance of being supplied at all. No great hereditary properties, no constituted aristocracy, no powerful municipalities, exercise that influence which elsewhere gives weight to provincial applications. Some years ago it was decided that a road should be made between Broussa, the capital of what was anciently Bithynia, and the Sea of Marmora. The whole distance was not greater than twenty, or, it might be, twenty-five miles. The necessary orders were given, the necessary funds were appropriated. The Pasha of Broussa was empowered to carry the Government plan into effect, and the neighbouring population was required to devote its labour to the work for little or nothing. To this hour a good half of the road remains to be made. The works, for no apparent reason, came to a standstill, even before the great earthquake had furnished an excuse for their suspension. If such and so many are the causes of decline within the Turkish empire, they are only in due proportion with the dangers which threaten its existence from without. These dangers are by no means confined to the ambition of powerful princes, or to the working of adverse opinions in Christendom. They spring in great part from causes more strictly natural, from the geographical position occupied by Turkey, and the circumstances which attended its political growth as an empire. Consider the length of frontier which separates the Sultan's dominions from those of Austria, Russia, and Persia, to say nothing of Greece, Egypt, and Barbary. The waters of the Euxine alone break the continuity of a line extending from the Adriatic to the Persian Gulf. The traditions of that old aggressive policy, which was originally founded on views of religious propagation, and which at length was not so much resigned by choice as dropped through necessity, operate even now so far as to keep up a jealous attention at the Porte to all frontier interests. The Colossus stands on fragile feet, and therefore naturally makes them the principal object of its care. Head and heart may shift for themselves, provided the extremities be secured from encroachment. The Porte is thus continually brought into sensitive contact with its neigh |